Top Ten Back-to-School Trends + Audio Analysis

As you are probabaly now quite well aware, BIGinsight has been a proud partner in the collection of the National Retail Federations’s Back-to-School insights for 10 seasons.

And, I recently had the opportunity – nay, privilege – of co-presenting on their annual Back-to-School Media Briefing with NRF President/CEO Matthew Shay. While Matt reviewed the top ten Back-to-School trends (BTW how cool is the infographic below?), I spoke for about ten minutes on the overall state of consumers and how this may be influencing the Back-to-School season. Be sure to click on the link below to listen – you’ll hear a lot of great insights and explanations beyond what has already been released.

Hear NRF CEO and BIGinsight discuss top BTS trends

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Back-to-School Overview + New Consumer Trends for July

Our very special guest contributor this month on the BIG Call was Ellen Davis, Senior Vice President at the National Retail Federation and Executive Director for the NRF Foundation.

July is an exciting month for the NRF and BIGinsight, as this is the time of year we collect and release a fresh batch of insights on the Back-to-School shopping season. 2012 marks the tenth season of our partnership on Back-to-School insights – a milestone!

In her portion of the Call, Ellen delivered an interesting view of what we can expect from Back-to-School shoppers this year and what this means to retailers. Specifically, she addressed:

– The Economy: Where We’ve Been, Where We’re Going
– Back to School, Back to College 2012
– Economy Remains Top of Mind
– What’s Different This Year
– Retailers’ Recipe for Success
– Holiday Implications

And to kick off the Call, I gave a snapshot of consumers overall, including economic sentiment, employment outlook, practical purchasing, our 90 Day Outlook as well as a special preview of Holiday 2012 spending plans.

To listen to the recorded webinar, click here.

For the full, complimentary July 2012 BIG Call slide deck, please click here.

For more information on this data, please contact BIGinsight™.

Source: BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey – JUL-12 (N = 8509, 7/2 – 7/9/12)

© 2012, Prosper®

BIGinsight™ is a trademark of Prosper Business Development Corp.

Fresh Consumer Insights for July

Click to view the July 2012 BIGinsight Executive Briefing.

Early each month, we release our Executive Briefing – complimentary topline insights from our latest Monthly Consumer Survey of more than 8,000 consumers.

And, we’ve just released our latest edition for July. Here’s what you may have missed:

– Economic sentiment perked up from June, though consumers failed to set off any fireworks compared to years past. This month’s reading (32.8%) looks a little stagnant when placed in longer-term perspective – and well below Jul-07’s pre-recession figure of 47.8%.

– Workers show signs of concern for personal job security. 4.2% admitted they were anxious about becoming laid off, up from last month as well as one year ago.

– With the campaign season about to hit full throttle, consumers seem to be bracing for the onslaught of political propaganda. Overall, though, consumers seem a little less apprehensive this Presidential go-around they did during the 2008 McCain vs. Obama election. Plus: how would you score in a Presidential Pop Quiz?

– The uptick in consumer confidence this month may be leading a few shoppers off the practicality platform. Before you start thinking “spending rebound,” though, keep this in mind: practicality remains well above the sensible shopping tendencies we witnessed before the Great Recession.

– July pump price prediction: $3.49/gal, 25 cents below the forecast for the end of June ($3.75/gal). For more on this topic: Pain at the Pump: Who (or What) is Controlling Pump Prices?

– A bit of Christmas cheer might be in store for retailers: one in ten says they plan to spend more on gifts this year, up from 6.5% in Jul-11.

– Was JC Penney’s Fair & Square strategy a gift to Macy’s in Women’s Clothing? For the sixth consecutive month, Macy’s bests JC Penney in this category, though Kohl’s and Walmart continue to lead overall.

– In the well-documented Shoe Wars, one retailer is M.I.A. in July. Yes, that’s right (and you heard it here first)…JC Penney (now #6) has been bounced from the Top 5 by Foot Locker.

– 90 Day Outlook: Back-to-School (i.e. Children’s Clothing) looks to be a bright spot in consumers’ spending plans. However, with the majority of categories facing DOWNward compared to June, revenues may fizzle instead of sizzle as we make our way through summer.

– What’s Hot? Farmers’ fresh fare beats out Spider-Man, Dark Knight.

To sign up to receive the monthly BIGinsight™ Executive Briefing, please click here.

And, to view the latest BIG Executive Briefing in its entirely: July 2012.

Source: BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey – JUL-12 (N = 8509, 7/2 – 7/9/12)

© 2012, Prosper®

BIGinsight™ is a trademark of Prosper Business Development Corp.

Generation Gap: Holiday 2012 Spending Preview

Christmas in July?

With the Back-to-School shopping season just around the corner (or already here according to some of the ad circulars I received over the weekend), we’ll soon be looking ahead to that all-important holiday shopping season. And while spending specifics are still a little off on the horizon, we queried the 8500 consumer respondents in our July Monthly Survey about the direction they anticipated their holiday gift budgets to take for 2012: north, south, or even keel from the previous year.

While nearly three out of ten (28.1%) admitted that it was too early to tell, among those with a budget in mind, 10.2% are planning to spend more this year compared to last (up from 6.5% in Jul-11). Before you start ringing those jingle bells, though, keep in mind that the vast majority of shoppers plans to spend at (46.3%) or below (43.4%) their 2011 gifting budgets. Of course, holiday 2012 spending plans vary by generation*, which brings me to the subject of this post.

Among shoppers with spending expectations in mind, it appears that Gen Y will be the most generous this year compared to last. Nearly one in five (17.9%) of these youngsters is planning to spend more on gifts this year; this figure declines as age increase, with just 1.1% of the Grinches Silent generation boosting their budgets this year. Perhaps it’s the holiday excitement felt among Gen Y – and even Gen X – which lends itself to Santa-like spending outlooks this year.

Among shoppers in general planning to spend less, three out of five (58.9%) stated that they were simply going to cut budgets across the board. A large proportion is also planning to buy gifts only on sale (41.3%) or do more comparison shopping (33.5%) – so it looks like mobile devices may play key roles for these shoppers this year. #showrooming

Plans for spending less become all the more interesting when we look at this data divvied up by generation:

– Not on Sale? Not for Me: Boomers (45.6%) and Silents (43.7%) are the most likely to scrimp on budgets by only buying on sale. Gen Y (35.9%) is the least likely to be swayed into saving using this method.

– Pause My Purchase, Please: One out of ten of those in Gens X (9.6%) and Y (10.9%) are curbing gift budgets by utilizing layaway a bit earlier this year. This number drops with advancing age; just 3.9% of the Silent group plans to put gift purchases on hold.

– This is Pinteresting: Nearly three out of ten (29.4%) Gen Y-ers plan to pinch the pennies by making homemade gifts. Gen X indexed on average, while Boomers and Silents are less likely to do so. Perhaps this social media site is inspiring more DIY-ers among the younger generation?

Stay tuned…the holiday shopping season is shaping up to be pretty interesting this year.

For more information on this data, please contact BIGinsight™.

* Generations were defined for this analysis in the following manner:

Silent (born 1945 or earlier)
Boomers (born 1946 – 1964)
Gen X (born 1965 – 1982)
Gen Y (born 1983 – 1993)

Source: BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey – JUL-12 (N = 8509, 7/2 – 7/9/12)

© 2012, Prosper®

BIGinsight™ is a trademark of Prosper Business Development Corp.

Mobile Exclusivity & What This Means for Marketers

Can you recall the last time we were on the precipice of revolutionary technological change? Something that would alter the way we do things – permanently (or at least until the next BIG thing comes along)? I can remember a time before personal computers, DVRs (but not VCRs), remote controls that weren’t “remote” (and still attached to TVs), Walkmans® (not MP3 players)…and Google.

I remember the first time I heard the word “Google” like it was yesterday:  Sophomore year…College…Financial Accounting class…1999. Our prof was detailing a research project involving GAAP accounting rules [snooze] and mentioned that we should try a new search engine – Google. It was clean, easy to use, and took you directly where you wanted to go. (We were all still tied to Yahoo at the time, remember? Or that one with the Lab – Lycos, right?) “You should buy stock in this company,” he said. “These guys have something here.”

In the immortal words of Ralphie Parker: “FUUUUUUUUUUUUUDGE.” Had I taken that stock tip, I’d be on an island somewhere – and not discussing mobile exclusivity with you fine folks.

And that brings us back on topic: Mobile Exclusivity. With an increasing number of consumers gravitating toward smartphone and/or tablet ownership, it should come as no surprise that these devices are becoming the preferred – and sometimes the only – source for tasks that were previously undertaken on a good old laptop or desktop. Nonetheless, the number of mobile owners doing so is still staggering.

According to our latest Prosper Mobile Insights survey of 331 mobile owners, half (51.1%) say they only access their email via device. Nearly as many (45.3%) conduct Internet searches exclusively on their smartphones or tablets, while two in five (42.3%) say they are mobile-only when it comes to updating their Facebook pages. Mobile owners are slightly less committed to exclusive mobile access for online banking (29.6%) or online shopping (25.4%) – for now. All told, seven out of ten mobile owners conduct at least one web-based activity using only their devices.

So what does this mean for retailers, marketers, and advertisers? Should they all jump onto the mobile bandwagon? Here are a few questions to ask when attempting to reach mobile owners:

1.       Are your customers even mobile?

If you’ve kept up with BIG, you may have heard us mention our Mobile Aptitude Score, a unique index which considers mobile ownership, usage, influence on purchases, and frequency of mobile Internet access. By assessing the scores for various shoppers, we found that some retailers are more likely to have “more mobile” customers (i.e. Nordstrom, Macy’s, Apple) compared to others (like JC Penney, L.L. Bean, even Radio Shack). While mobile adoption may grow among “underperforming” retailers, you have to ask yourself if it’s worth dipping into the mobile pool if it’s not going to make a splash with your core shoppers.

2.       How long can this last?

I teed up this question specifically for marketers and advertisers – as I think we all can agree that mobile is the way to go technology-wise, at least until skin implants harness our telekinetic brain waves or ESP or something [and I’m not even sure that makes sense]. More specifically, how long will it be before mobile users feel inundated by ads (banners, pop-ups, sponsored, videos, or otherwise), turning them off from buying your products or using your services?

In this same survey, we found that two out of five (42.9%) mobile owners are more likely to pay attention to a video versus a standard ad on their mobile device – that’s a seemingly big audience. Among these respondents, half (51.3%) reported that videos were more attention grabbing, 34.5% admitted they were more enjoyable, while a quarter (25.2%) felt that they are more relevant. It’s important to note, though, that 30.4% simply stated that they are unable to click away from videos until at least part of the advertisement had played. Not unlike watching a commercial on TV, right? That is, until VCRs gave us the ability to “buzz” the ads, which evolved into skipping commercials in real time, courtesy of DVRs. So, it may just be a matter of time before the next Gates/Zuckerberg/Google wannabe invents an app that wipes out ad content on your mobile device.

Perhaps the key to mobile advertising is thinking outside the box. Will we be slicing through Dole® bananas on Fruit Ninja in the near future? If James Bond can drain a Heineken, I guess anything’s possible.

3.       Is this worth it?

You can spend all you want on mobile adaptation and/or advertising, but if browsers aren’t converting to buyers, is this worth your company’s expenditures? Again, examining your customers’ Mobile Aptitude may help answer this question. Additionally per our study, mobile owners currently remain a little cool on their comfort level with buying and banking via devices, but recall the growth of online shopping – security and shipping concerns have been displaced by instant gratification, coupon codes, and a reputable crop of web-based retailers. So, is it just a matter of time before mobile buying becomes the next BIG thing?

To access complimentary data from our latest Prosper Mobile Insights release, click here.

And, to read our original release on the topic: 7 in 10 Mobile Users Conduct at Least One Web-Based Activity Using Only Mobile, According to Latest Mobile Survey

For more information on this data, please contact BIGinsight™.

Source: Prosper Mobile Insights™ Mobile Survey (Jun-12). Conducted 6/19 – 6/22/12 among 331 smartphone and tablet users on their devices. Margin of error: 5.4 percentage points.

© 2012, Prosper®

BIGinsight™ and Prosper Mobile Insights™ are trademarks of Prosper Business Development Corp.

Fresh Consumer Insights via Video

For those of you who may have missed our latest Executive Briefing or our monthly BIG Call, we just wanted to let you know that you still have a chance to get up-to-date on the latest consumer trends via our Video Briefing!

That’s right…in just 5 minutes, we’ll educate you on what you need to know about confidence, consumer spending, unemployment, and retail. Simply click the play button below to view our latest insights from our Monthly Consumer Survey:

Interested in becoming a BIG VIP? Click here to sign up for access to a host of complimentary insights, from our briefings and webinars to press releases and more!

For more information on this data, please contact BIGinsight™.

Source: BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey – JUN-12 (N = 8760, 6/5 – 6/12/12)

© 2012, Prosper®

BIGinsight™ is a trademark of Prosper Business Development Corp.

Hot Dog! July 4th Cookouts Expected to Cost a Little Less This Year

With Independence Day falling on a Wednesday this year, our family observed the holiday with a cookout held over the weekend. Typically, this occasion is pot luck, and because I’ll try any recipe involving chocolate, I was planning to bake up a batch of Red Velvet White Chocolate Chip Cookies [don’t these look yummy?!] Unfortunately, a sudden summer storm knocked out our power over the weekend, and I had to resort to Plan B: a couple of bags of Mike-Sells and some deli potato salad.

While I certainly hope that the other 160 million patriots celebrating their Independence with a cookout, barbeque or picnic do so with a little more, uh, gas, it’s evident that we will all have something to look forward to: the average price of a July 4^th cookout is projected to be a little lower this year.

Despite consumers’ concerns with rising food prices, the average cost of an Independence Day picnic is down a few dollars to $59.14 (from $61.16 in 2011). This translates into a $2.4 billion in cookout-related spending for celebrants collectively…that’s a lot of coleslaw!

While the prices of charcoal and lighter fluid look to be on this rise for 2012, it appears that grocers are relying on select loss leaders to draw customers to their stores. In particular, we found that hot dogs and American cheese seem to be sparking savings. Knowing how practical consumers continue to be, though, I’d expect ad circulars, coupons, and even mobile devices to play key roles as shoppers seek out the best prices for their cookout supplies.

Other 4^th of July insights this year (collected for the National Retail Federation):
– 115 million people will “ooh” and “aah” over fireworks displays, up from 105 million in 2011
– Nearly 36 million are planning to attend a parade
– About 30 million will hit the road and travel for the holiday
– 137 million proudly fly their American flags

Enjoy a happy and safe 4^th!

Click here for complimentary infographic and cookout-related report.

Click here to view the original release from the National Retail Federation: Fireworks, BBQs in high demand this Independence Day

For more information on this data, please contact BIGinsight™.

Source: BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey – JUN-12 (N = 8760, 6/5 – 6/12/12)

© 2012, Prosper®

BIGinsight™ is a trademark of Prosper Business Development Corp.