Trend Spy: November

Each month, we ask respondents in our Consumer Intentions & Actions® survey if latest trends, newest gadgets, and even “it” personalities are Hot or Not. The Hot or Not List is generally comprised of input from our respondents, gathered in the previous month’s CIA® survey.

We publish the overall results in the monthly Executive Briefing (see the November results here). In a nutshell, adults in general voted Giving Thanks, Black Friday, Tablet Devices, and Cyber Monday as the hottest trends for November, respectively.

But what’s hot is really dependent on age and gender, doesn’t it? What a teenager believes to be totes cool might not be the bee’s knees to a grandparent. (For the record, if you had to look up “bee’s knees” or “totes,” you probably have a completely different view of what’s hot or not).

This month, though, let’s Trend Spy on younger adults. Some of our findings were quite surprising when we compared data for younger men (aged 18 to 34) to younger women (also 18 to 34). For instance, who would’ve thought that young men would say that Black Friday was hotter than Tablet Devices? Eight out of ten (80.1%) cool dudes voted one of biggest shopping days of the year as hot, compared to 67.3% for Tablets. Guys for Black Friday even outnumbered the young ladies (75.0%). Perhaps retailers are missing the boat a hot demographic here…

Besides Black Friday and Tablets, younger men also named Giving Thanks (65.9%), Cyber Monday (58.9%), and Occupy Wall Street (45.6%) in their top five. In contrast, the hottest item for young women was Giving Thanks at 82.5%…so these ladies are 25% more likely to vote for Giving Thanks than their male counterparts, who are busy giving thanks for Black Friday. Three out of four (75.0%) women 18 to 34 also voted Black Friday as hot, followed by Tablet Devices (69.1%), Cyber Monday (56.9%), and [swoon] Twilight: Breaking Dawn (52.1%).

P.S. For more on Black Friday, stay tuned for our upcoming BIG on the Street post, where we’re planning to bring you highlights from our Black Friday excursion. With 152 million people planning to shop this weekend, it should be interesting.

For more information on this data, please contact BIGinsight™.

Source: Consumer Intentions & Actions® Survey – NOV-11 (N = 8502, 11/1 – 11/8/11)

© 2011, Prosper®

BIGinsight™ is a trademark of Prosper Business Development Corp.

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Consumer Intentions & Actions: April (Part 2)

It’s time for more insights from April! Let’s look into consumers’ future financial plans, the effects of rising gas prices and the outlook for several retail categories compared to previous years.

FINANCIAL PLANNING

The flip side of the spending coin is saving. So let’s take a look at Financial Plans. Here’s another question we’ve been tracking each month for many years: Which of the following financial steps are you planning to take in the next 3 months?

The plans I have displayed on this chart are:

• Decrease Overall Spending
• Pay Down Debt
• Increase Savings
• Pay with Cash More Often

 

Nine times out of ten, paying down debt is prioritized above decreasing spending, but, as you can see from the chart, that’s not the case in April.

• As drivers increasingly pay to fill up their autos, it seems that they are looking to shore up other areas of spending to balance fuel expenses. Rising food and clothing prices also factor into the spending equation.
• So that $4 cup of coffee I was just talking about might get axed in the budget if prices rise to the $4 or $5 per gallon range this summer.

Paying down debt is still very much a priority, though fewer are planning to do so compared to a year ago.

Increasing savings is just as important as it was back in April 2010, while a few more consumers seem less inclined to pay only with cash compared to that same time period.

Here are some other interesting statistics really showing what’s on consumers’ minds right now:

• Two out of five consumers say they aren’t saving enough;
• More than 60% say they are eating leftovers more often due to rising food prices;
• And, two in five are making changes to their regular grocery lists to cope with price increases.
  • Some of the most targeted items for this budget “diet” include impulse items in general, snacks, candy, and cookies.

EFFECTS OF ESCALATING PUMP PRICES

I believe I’ve alluded to this several times now, so let’s finally take a look at the effects of escalating pump prices. This chart is an interesting one, as we are viewing the percentage of consumers who say their spending has been impacted by fluctuating gas prices crossed by the average price per gallon of gas at the time our surveys were conducted, according to the Energy Information Administration.

As you can see, the amount of people affected really took off once the price of gas hit $3.50. With pump prices rising again in April, we can see that the number affected rose as well.

Imagine what might happen if we cross into the $4 per gallon range. Nearly 80% already report being affected. Eight in ten consumers anticipate that the price at the pump will continue to rise through the end of April…

90 DAY OUTLOOK: BIG FORWARD LOOK

Now it’s time to move onto the BIG Forward Look, which maps out consumer spending plans over the next 90 days.

We ask a simple question each month…

Over the next 90 days, do you plan on spending more, the same, or less on the following items than you would normally spend at this time of year?

The results are then tabulated into our Diffusion Index (Spend More – Spend Less) and compared to previous periods of time. In the chart displayed on the screen, we are comparing April 2011 results with March, April 2010, and April 09.

As you can see, all merchandise categories are faring poorly compared to last month and last year.

We are seeing improved results for most categories from April 2009, but one would expect improvement from a recession-addled period of time, wouldn’t they?

And seasonal categories like Major Home Improvements and Lawn & Garden are areas of particular concern.

Finally, while I don’t have the pre-recession April 2007 results on this chart, all categories are in fact facing downward from this time period, so we’re still not nearing a spending recovery.

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That wraps up April! If you want more current consumer insights, including voting trends and media usage, be sure to check out http://www.BIGinsight.com. We update it constantly, so that data and insights are always fresh!

Consumer Intentions & Actions: April (Part 1)

This month, I will be reviewing the latest big insights on confidence, practicality, and personal finance, as well as some timely data on how rising gas prices are affecting consumer spending.

Consumer Intentions & Actions: April

• The April Consumer Intentions & Actions survey was collected April 5^th through the 12^th and includes the thoughts of about 8500 consumers.
• We’ll be taking a look at:
  • Consumer Confidence;
  • Practical Purchasing, Focus on Needs over Wants, and Budget Plans;
  • Financial Plans;
  • The Effects of Escalating Pump Prices;
  • Finally, we’ll take a BIG Forward Look with 90 day purchase plans;

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

I always kick off this discussion with Consumer Confidence, a key indicator of consumer’s overall mood and how willing they are to spend. Let’s take a look at this data over two different time periods.

This first chart displays a 13 month snapshot of those who are very confident or confident.

As you can see, we are now in the third consecutive month of decline, with 28.6% who are confident or very confident in the economy.

This current reading is four points below April 2010 sentiment.

Comparing data back to 2004, you can clearly see the toll that the economic downturn has taken on the consumer psyche.

A year ago, it may have appeared that confidence was on an upswing, that maybe this was a turning point for recovery. But now, it seems that any improvement in confidence a year ago was more of a blip on the radar screen.

PRACTICAL PURCHASERS

As I’m sure that you can imagine, consumers who have little faith in our economy aren’t exactly big spenders when it comes to shopping.

Each month, we ask “In the last 6 months, have you made any of the following changes?” Those “changes” I have displayed within this chart are:

• I have become more practical and realistic in my purchases, which is the dark blue trend line
• In light blue is I focus more on what I NEED rather than what I WANT.
• And then in green is I have become more budget conscious.

As you can see, each of these attributes saw a slight uptick from March, reflecting declining optimism in confidence. Interestingly, this month’s figures are slightly below those from April 2010, when confidence was four points higher than it is now.

  

How can this be explained? Perhaps it’s that while consumers maintain a gritty view toward the economy, they are willing to “give in” – on occasion – when it comes to spending.

• Maybe it’s that $4 cup of coffee;
• A new outfit purchased on the sale rack;
• Or a Saturday evening out.
• Whatever the guilty pleasure may be, don’t look for consumers to overindulge or revert to pre-recession spending anytime soon. Nearly half of consumers still contend they are spending practically and more so are just focused on the necessities.

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Check back later this week when I will continue the Consumer Intentions & Actions discussion. Up next, financial planning, pump prices and a look forward into future purchase plans!