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The Not-So-Jolly Holiday Outlook for JC Penney Shoppers

September 25, 2012 Leave a comment

2012 hasn’t been kind to JC Penney. And, it doesn’t appear that Q4 will get any better for the department store, which has struggled to shake up its stodgy image this year and in the process has rattled its core customer base. According to the Prosper Spending Index, JC Penney shoppers’ outlook for holiday gift spending falls below that of the general population, with an index of 95.9 (baseline index = 100).* Among JC Penney shoppers with holiday spending plans in mind, two in five (44.2%) plan to spend less on holiday gifts this year than they did for 2011, while fewer than one in ten (7.4%) plan to spend more.

As could be expected, the holiday spending outlook is similar among those shopping Walmart (index = 94.4). Still, a slightly larger proportion of shoppers at the discounter, known to cater to more cash-strapped, lower income households, plans to spend more for the upcoming holiday season (9.5%) compared to JC Penney shoppers (7.4%).

Among the customers analyzed, shoppers at Macy’s, a retailer which has arguably benefited from JC Penney’s EDLP strategy switch-up, maintain the most positive outlook on holiday gift spending, with a Prosper Spending Index of 110.9. TJ Maxx loyalists also hold a brighter-than-average outlook (index = 106.3). Target (102.4) and Kohl’s (101.0) shoppers’ holiday spending plans are in line with the overall average.

So we know JC Penney shoppers will be trying to cut back on their holiday gift spending this year, but just how do they intend to accomplish this?

Memo to Ron Johnson: Your shoppers (or what’s left of them) are still motivated to buy based on sales and coupons.

Among JC Penney customers, nearly half say they are shopping for sales more often (45.4%) and/or are clipping coupons (42.1%) in efforts to help balance their budgets – higher than the overall average. Among the retailers mentioned, Kohl’s shoppers – rabid for that Kohl’s Cash – are the only ones eclipsing both of these figures.

With economic uncertainty pervading consumer mindsets, today’s shoppers – JC Penney’s included – continue to possess an innate need to feel good about spending their hard earned dollars, particularly when it comes to spending on those not-so-essentials like gifts and apparel. And in shoppers’ “feel-good” toolkit are coupons, weekly promos, and special sales. These items are, of course, generally absent from JC Penney’s promotional strategy – setting the department store up for additional customer loss during the critical holiday season.

Think about it like this: getting a $60 sweater on sale for $30 is something to write home tweet about. Simply buying a sweater for the $30 ticket price? It’s a little ho-ho-hum.

* Holiday outlook insights are based on celebrants who have holiday spending plans in mind.

This post originally appeared on Forbes.com as a contribution to the Prosper Now blog.

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New September Insights in a Snap!

September 18, 2012 1 comment

This month, we’ve introduced the Consumer Snapshot – a concise look at a few trending topics for the month of September, designed to give you a BIG picture view of current consumers.

In this month’s video analysis, we’re examining consumer confidence, practical spending and personal finances, and the pain at the pump. And, we wrap things up with a peek at Holiday 2012 spending plans.

This month’s video is below, but you can also click over to our full version for a short text summary as well as the link to this month’s complimentary PowerPoint analysis.

 

Interested in becoming a BIG VIP? Please click here to sign up for access to a host of complimentary insights, from our briefings and webinars to press releases and more.

To view the latest BIG Consumer Snapshot in its entirely: September 2012.

Source: BIGinsight.com

© 2012, Prosper®

BIGinsight™ is a trademark of Prosper Business Development Corp

Fresh Consumer Insights for July

July 17, 2012 3 comments
BIGinsight Executive Briefing - July 2012

Click to view the July 2012 BIGinsight Executive Briefing.

Early each month, we release our Executive Briefing – complimentary topline insights from our latest Monthly Consumer Survey of more than 8,000 consumers.

And, we’ve just released our latest edition for July. Here’s what you may have missed:

– Economic sentiment perked up from June, though consumers failed to set off any fireworks compared to years past. This month’s reading (32.8%) looks a little stagnant when placed in longer-term perspective – and well below Jul-07’s pre-recession figure of 47.8%.

– Workers show signs of concern for personal job security. 4.2% admitted they were anxious about becoming laid off, up from last month as well as one year ago.

– With the campaign season about to hit full throttle, consumers seem to be bracing for the onslaught of political propaganda. Overall, though, consumers seem a little less apprehensive this Presidential go-around they did during the 2008 McCain vs. Obama election. Plus: how would you score in a Presidential Pop Quiz?

– The uptick in consumer confidence this month may be leading a few shoppers off the practicality platform. Before you start thinking “spending rebound,” though, keep this in mind: practicality remains well above the sensible shopping tendencies we witnessed before the Great Recession.

– July pump price prediction: $3.49/gal, 25 cents below the forecast for the end of June ($3.75/gal). For more on this topic: Pain at the Pump: Who (or What) is Controlling Pump Prices?

A bit of Christmas cheer might be in store for retailers: one in ten says they plan to spend more on gifts this year, up from 6.5% in Jul-11.

Was JC Penney’s Fair & Square strategy a gift to Macy’s in Women’s Clothing? For the sixth consecutive month, Macy’s bests JC Penney in this category, though Kohl’s and Walmart continue to lead overall.

In the well-documented Shoe Wars, one retailer is M.I.A. in July. Yes, that’s right (and you heard it here first)…JC Penney (now #6) has been bounced from the Top 5 by Foot Locker.

– 90 Day Outlook: Back-to-School (i.e. Children’s Clothing) looks to be a bright spot in consumers’ spending plans. However, with the majority of categories facing DOWNward compared to June, revenues may fizzle instead of sizzle as we make our way through summer.

– What’s Hot? Farmers’ fresh fare beats out Spider-Man, Dark Knight.

To sign up to receive the monthly BIGinsight™ Executive Briefing, please click here.

And, to view the latest BIG Executive Briefing in its entirely: July 2012.

Source: BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey – JUL-12 (N = 8509, 7/2 – 7/9/12)

© 2012, Prosper®

BIGinsight™ is a trademark of Prosper Business Development Corp.

Generation Gap: Holiday 2012 Spending Preview

July 11, 2012 6 comments

Christmas in July?

With the Back-to-School shopping season just around the corner (or already here according to some of the ad circulars I received over the weekend), we’ll soon be looking ahead to that all-important holiday shopping season. And while spending specifics are still a little off on the horizon, we queried the 8500 consumer respondents in our July Monthly Survey about the direction they anticipated their holiday gift budgets to take for 2012: north, south, or even keel from the previous year.

While nearly three out of ten (28.1%) admitted that it was too early to tell, among those with a budget in mind, 10.2% are planning to spend more this year compared to last (up from 6.5% in Jul-11). Before you start ringing those jingle bells, though, keep in mind that the vast majority of shoppers plans to spend at (46.3%) or below (43.4%) their 2011 gifting budgets. Of course, holiday 2012 spending plans vary by generation*, which brings me to the subject of this post.

Among shoppers with spending expectations in mind, it appears that Gen Y will be the most generous this year compared to last. Nearly one in five (17.9%) of these youngsters is planning to spend more on gifts this year; this figure declines as age increase, with just 1.1% of the Grinches Silent generation boosting their budgets this year. Perhaps it’s the holiday excitement felt among Gen Y – and even Gen X – which lends itself to Santa-like spending outlooks this year.

Based on your present situation and feelings toward the economy, which of the following best describes your plans for the December Holiday Season?

Among shoppers in general planning to spend less, three out of five (58.9%) stated that they were simply going to cut budgets across the board. A large proportion is also planning to buy gifts only on sale (41.3%) or do more comparison shopping (33.5%) – so it looks like mobile devices may play key roles for these shoppers this year. #showrooming

You said you were planning to spend less on holiday gifts this year, which of the following are you doing?

Plans for spending less become all the more interesting when we look at this data divvied up by generation:

– Not on Sale? Not for Me: Boomers (45.6%) and Silents (43.7%) are the most likely to scrimp on budgets by only buying on sale. Gen Y (35.9%) is the least likely to be swayed into saving using this method.

– Pause My Purchase, Please: One out of ten of those in Gens X (9.6%) and Y (10.9%) are curbing gift budgets by utilizing layaway a bit earlier this year. This number drops with advancing age; just 3.9% of the Silent group plans to put gift purchases on hold.

– This is Pinteresting: Nearly three out of ten (29.4%) Gen Y-ers plan to pinch the pennies by making homemade gifts. Gen X indexed on average, while Boomers and Silents are less likely to do so. Perhaps this social media site is inspiring more DIY-ers among the younger generation?

Stay tuned…the holiday shopping season is shaping up to be pretty interesting this year.

For more information on this data, please contact BIGinsight™.

* Generations were defined for this analysis in the following manner:

Silent (born 1945 or earlier)
Boomers (born 1946 – 1964)
Gen X (born 1965 – 1982)
Gen Y (born 1983 – 1993)

Source: BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey – JUL-12 (N = 8509, 7/2 – 7/9/12)

© 2012, Prosper®

BIGinsight™ is a trademark of Prosper Business Development Corp.

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