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First Look: January 2013
Eager to know where consumers stand as we begin the New Year?
We’ve got the latest details on consumer confidence, employment, purchase plans, financial goals as well as what’s hot (or not) in our January 2013 Snapshot Summary. Here are some of the highlights:
– Did the fiscal cliff free fall we nearly experienced lead to more fragile sentiment for the New Year? For January, just over a third (35.3%) is very confident/confident in chances for a strong economy, down two points from last month.
– Though the U.S. unemployment rate remained stagnant at 7.8% for December, consumers maintain slightly higher hopes for the job market compared to thirty days ago. Look for unemployment to remain a hot topic in 2013, though: year-over-year; consumers look less optimistic about the pink slip situation.
– Perhaps some of those holiday gift cards are leading consumers to less practical pastures…this month, while nearly half are poised for pragmatic spending, this figure has declined three points from 30 days ago.
– New Year’s Resolution #1: Fix the Finances…in January, more than a third affirm that they plan to pay down debt and/or decrease overall spending over the next three months, rising from December as well as Jan-12 and Jan-11.
– With the annual average price of gas the highest on record in 2012, it should come as no surprise that drivers haven’t relegated this issue to the back seat…two-thirds are still affected by the pain at the pump. Drivers’ pump price prediction for the end of January is $3.52/gal, just under what was expected at the close of 2012.
– In this month’s retail roundup: In Women’s Clothing, Kohl’s bests Walmart for January, while the big discounter seems to be thisclose to losing the top spot in Shoes as well…stay tuned. Amazon proves it’s the biggest-freight-train-that-could in Electronics, nearly doubling customer share Y-O-Y. And, in an interesting development in Health & Beauty: it appears that 2013 could be a battle between Target and Walgreens…
– Evidence of a holiday hangover? With the gift-giving season in the rearview, consumers take a downward approach to spending compared to December.
– It’s blue skies ahead for vacationers in this month’s BIG Ticket, as 6 month purchase intentions for vacation travel have increased M-O-M and Y-O-Y.
– Not only is Amazon’s the world’s largest online retailer, but it’s the hottest as well…nearly four out of five consumers voted Amazon what’s hot in January. Plus: “Made in America” products, exercise/going to the gym, Super Bowl XLVII, and Walmart.
Our monthly Consumer Snapshot video analysis of the State of the Consumer for 2013 will be released tomorrow, January 16. This special edition includes quick insights on the five things you need to know about consumers in the New Year. To sign up to be a BIGinsight™ VIP and receive our Consumer Snapshot email notification, please click here.
And, to view the Snapshot Summary in its entirely: January 2013.
Source: BIGinsight.com
© 2013, Prosper®
BIGinsight™ is a trademark of Prosper Business Development
New December Insights in a Snap!
This month’s Consumer Snapshot is ready! The video below is a concise look at a few trending topics for the month of December, designed to give you a BIG picture view of current consumers.
Here’s a brief overview of what we’re seeing from consumers in December 2012:
– Will the fiscal cliff prove to be the Grinch who stole Christmas? Confidence backs down two points from November.
– While the official unemployment rate registered at 7.7% for November,this doesn’t seem to be quite the hiring miracle consumers were hoping to see this season.
– After the buying bonanza that was Black Friday and Cyber Monday, consumers’ penchant for practicality rises in December.
– It appears that along with trimming the tree this month, consumers will also be trimming their budgets.
– Walmart versus Kohl’s is a toss-up this month in Women’s Clothing.
– Amazon.com climbs to record customer share in Electronics.
– It’s a frosty 90 Day Outlook with spending plans looking downward from Nov-12, Dec-11.
– What’s Hot? Holiday shopping…online.
Be sure to check out the NEW Consumer Snapshot InsightCenter™. When you register for complimentary access to this InsightCenter™, you’ll have the ability to segment an advance preview of our all-star insights on consumer confidence, employment, shopping strategies, and future purchase plans by several key demographic groups. You can also download this month’s text summary (which includes additional insights) as well as the PowerPoint analysis through this InsightCenter™.
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Source: BIGinsight.com
© 2012, Prosper®
BIGinsight™ is a trademark of Prosper Business Development Corp.
Can an iPhone 5 Save JC Penney?
It seems that Apple has the Midas Touch, and when JC Penney brought former SVP Ron Johnson on board in late 2011, it was heralded by many as a genius decision. Long relegated to the back of consumers’ minds [along with Sears], it appeared that this department store dinosaur was finally making a conscious effort to reinvigorate its stodgy image and arming itself to compete with its more present day foes: Macy’s, Kohl’s, and TJ Maxx.
With the advent of m-commerce, social media, and increasing connectivity, it seemed that this marriage between an Apple exec and JC Penney was a solid union – at least enough to advance the department store into 21st century retailing. However, as 2012 has progressed, it has become clear that the new “Fair & Square” JC Penney has gotten off to a very rocky start.
While JC Penney certainly has taken some steps in the right direction – focusing on exclusive brand names from the likes of Nicole Miller, Liz Claiborne, Mango, and even the Olsen twins takes a page from Kohl’s and Macy’s successful playbooks. Today’s consumers demand quality products at great prices, and they want to feel good about their purchases when walking out of the store. Here’s where JC Penney missteps: they have eliminated the excitement from the shoppers’ buying process. Having an extra 10-20% off coupon or buying an item on sale – which Kohl’s and Macy’s offer in abundance – gives the shopper the feeling that they’ve one-upped the retailer, i.e. the customer wins.
This shopping euphoria is essential when marketing apparel in an uncertain economy. Consumers already had closets full of clothes, and when it came time to really trim budgets during the “Great Recession,” apparel was one of the easiest budget cuts to stomach. It’s interesting that even during a downturn in the economy, electronics sold – maybe with a little less frequency and at somewhat lower price points, but the latest HDTVs, tablets, notebooks, smartphones, and all things iOS were, and continue to be, hot selling items. Budget-conscious consumers could justify the purchase of a new TV or computer; these were items that the whole family could enjoy, helped us multitask, and in some cases, assist with homework. In other words, electronics were fun, practical, and educational. Consumers literally couldn’t buy into this same reasoning when it came to apparel or home goods, categories that JC Penney so desperately needed to move on the selling floor.
When Johnson joined JC Penney last year, it appeared that the Apple “ego” followed him as well. Apple is an innovative brand with a heady following, and its retail outlets, which Johnson cultivated, served to build on this loyalty and brought out the curiosity in others – they were what shoppers demanded and gravitated toward.
JC Penney lacks the Apple cachet, and its “Fair & Square” overhaul – ditching coupons and weekly promotions in the process – failed to make a compelling argument as to why shoppers needed to check out their revamped stores. Sure low prices are great, but the new normal directs shoppers to seek out that extra incentive when it comes to buying non-essentials like apparel and home décor. The “new” JC Penney already has proof of this – just look at its successful free haircut promotion for Back-to-School; the operative word here, of course, is free.
A glance at what motivates shoppers to make apparel purchases shows us the continued importance of instore promotions and coupons in this category. According to BIGinsight’s semi-annual Media Behaviors and Influence™ survey of 25,000 consumers, apparel sales and promotions are the #1 driver for shoppers of many of the top U.S. retailers, including JC Penney, Kohl’s, Macy’s, Gap, H&M, and Nordstrom – yes, even promotions are key with luxury shoppers. And, in instances where instore promotions aren’t the top motivation for apparel purchases, they are still likely top of mind. At TJ Maxx, for example, while 42.3% rely on word of mouth, nearly as many (40.4%) value a good sale.
While word of mouth is the #2 influencer for apparel purchases among JC Penney shoppers (at 36.3%), coupons are almost as important (35.5%). JC Penney customers’ attraction to apparel coupons is stronger than that of the general population (30.7%) as well. Coupons don’t carry nearly as much clout over in Apple’s wheelhouse – electronics – so it’s plain to see why Johnson was so quick to axe those money-savers at JC Penney.
So can an iPhone save JC Penney? Can a marketing approach borne from Apple revive a struggling department store? Can pigs fly? Clearly not. What works for Apple – what used to work for Ron Johnson – simply has no place in JC Penney’s strategy. Today’s apparel shoppers have honed their bargain-hunting skills and crave a good deal on their terms. Instead of trying to force “Fair & Square” on the buying public – much like the launch of a great, new, innovative product à la Apple – JC Penney really should have first become more attuned its target customers.
This post originally appeared on Forbes.com as a contribution to the Prosper Now blog.
The Not-So-Jolly Holiday Outlook for JC Penney Shoppers
2012 hasn’t been kind to JC Penney. And, it doesn’t appear that Q4 will get any better for the department store, which has struggled to shake up its stodgy image this year and in the process has rattled its core customer base. According to the Prosper Spending Index, JC Penney shoppers’ outlook for holiday gift spending falls below that of the general population, with an index of 95.9 (baseline index = 100).* Among JC Penney shoppers with holiday spending plans in mind, two in five (44.2%) plan to spend less on holiday gifts this year than they did for 2011, while fewer than one in ten (7.4%) plan to spend more.
As could be expected, the holiday spending outlook is similar among those shopping Walmart (index = 94.4). Still, a slightly larger proportion of shoppers at the discounter, known to cater to more cash-strapped, lower income households, plans to spend more for the upcoming holiday season (9.5%) compared to JC Penney shoppers (7.4%).
Among the customers analyzed, shoppers at Macy’s, a retailer which has arguably benefited from JC Penney’s EDLP strategy switch-up, maintain the most positive outlook on holiday gift spending, with a Prosper Spending Index of 110.9. TJ Maxx loyalists also hold a brighter-than-average outlook (index = 106.3). Target (102.4) and Kohl’s (101.0) shoppers’ holiday spending plans are in line with the overall average.
So we know JC Penney shoppers will be trying to cut back on their holiday gift spending this year, but just how do they intend to accomplish this?
Memo to Ron Johnson: Your shoppers (or what’s left of them) are still motivated to buy based on sales and coupons.
Among JC Penney customers, nearly half say they are shopping for sales more often (45.4%) and/or are clipping coupons (42.1%) in efforts to help balance their budgets – higher than the overall average. Among the retailers mentioned, Kohl’s shoppers – rabid for that Kohl’s Cash – are the only ones eclipsing both of these figures.
With economic uncertainty pervading consumer mindsets, today’s shoppers – JC Penney’s included – continue to possess an innate need to feel good about spending their hard earned dollars, particularly when it comes to spending on those not-so-essentials like gifts and apparel. And in shoppers’ “feel-good” toolkit are coupons, weekly promos, and special sales. These items are, of course, generally absent from JC Penney’s promotional strategy – setting the department store up for additional customer loss during the critical holiday season.
Think about it like this: getting a $60 sweater on sale for $30 is something to write home tweet about. Simply buying a sweater for the $30 ticket price? It’s a little ho-ho-hum.
* Holiday outlook insights are based on celebrants who have holiday spending plans in mind.
This post originally appeared on Forbes.com as a contribution to the Prosper Now blog.
“Fair & Square” Revisited
When we first took a look at the new JC Penney “Fair & Square” strategy back in March, the initial read was so-so from the consumer standpoint. In our monthly “Hot or Not?” feature, more deemed it “not” (58.3%) than “hot” (41.7%), though JC Penney Women’s Clothing Shoppers* seemed the most willing to give the strategy a chance, particularly compared to Kohl’s, Target, and Walmart shoppers.
Flash forward to June…
In the wake of JC Penney’s disastrous Q1 earnings report, we decided to again poll our nearly 9,000 consumers for an update on their “Fair & Square” feelings. As you can imagine, it’s not faring so well; over the past three months, those who think JCP’s new direction is “hot” dropped nearly 14%:
But the real issue here is how “Fair & Square” has affected JC Penney’s consumer share. A look at 10 years of BIG historical data on the current Top 5 Women’s Clothing retailers tells three tales:
1. The Decline of Walmart
2. The Rise of Kohl’s
3. The Macy’s / JC Penney Clash
Let’s leave Walmart and Kohl’s out of the story for once and make JC Penney and Macy’s the main characters. As you can see, since Macy’s nationwide conversion in the mid-2000s, these two department stores have been tangling pretty consistently for third place in this category – with JC Penney generally the victor. However, a magnified look at each retailer’s performance over the past 13 months shows just how damaging “Fair & Square” was for JCP’s customer base:
Instead of driving shoppers to its stores, “Fair & Square” sent its customers right into the arms of competitors. #whatanightmare
* A selection of Women’s Clothing retailers was analyzed for this report. “Women’s Clothing Shoppers” are defined as those who shop most at a given retailer for Women’s Clothing (an unaided, write-in response).
Source: BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey – JUN-12 (N = 8760, 6/5 – 6/12/12)
© 2012, Prosper®
BIGinsight™ is a trademark of Prosper Business Development Corp.
BIG on the Street: Hola Miami
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Miami, Miami, you’ve got style.
Blue sky, sunshine, white sand by the mile.
When you live in this town, each day is sublime.
The coldest of winters are warm and divine.
– Rose Nylund, Dorothy Zbornak
The Golden Girls
Season 2, Espisode 6
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I never thought I’d see the day when I couldn’t count on the advice of my Girls. Having just flown back from a five day excursion to Miami, I had one expectation for this trip – a tan. Too bad it poured on Day 1…and Day 2…and Day 3 – you get the picture. Blue sky, sunshine my foot. If you are headed there sometime soon, don’t worry; Miami returned to normal beautiful weather patterns upon our departure. #vacationbust
While I didn’t manage to bring back my sunshine souvenir, I thought it would be fun to take a look at one of our southernmost states, courtesy of our monthly survey of more than 8,000 respondents (a portion of whom, of course, are Floridians).
While we already know that Florida is the “Best Bet for a ‘Rerun’ Vacation” and is labeled “Most Attractive Attractions,” as it turns out, those living in the Sunshine do have style. More than a quarter of Florida residents (22.5%) say that newest fashion trends and styles are important to them, slightly higher than the national average (20.5%). While a third prefers traditional, conservative looks (33.1%), the largest proportion of Floridians opts for value and comfort over fashion (44.3%)…must be all of those retirees – nearly a quarter of those living in this southern state have withdrawn from the workplace (compared to about a fifth of the population overall).
When we look at retailers specifically shopped in Florida, it appears that Walmart and Kohl’s lose some of their nationwide appeal. Among Women’s Clothing connoisseurs, Macy’s (10.8%) takes top honors, followed by JC Penney (9.3%), Walmart (8.8%), Kohl’s (7.5%), and Ross (4.8%). While Walmart (13.9%) is shopped most often for Men’s (followed by JC Penney at 9.7%), Payless (11.7%) tracks ahead of the big discounter (10.5%) in Shoes.
Concluding the retail round-up, Florida-style:
– Walmart wins in Sporting Goods (15.6%), though Sports Authority (14.7%) finishes just a point behind. Dick’s takes bronze (9.2%).
– While the CVS lead nationwide is BIG news for the Prescription Drug category, this druggist (21.7%) still trails Walgreens (26.8%) in the Sunshine State.
– With two in five shopping here most often for Groceries, Publix (42.1%) brings the heat to match the humidity, those Walmart (27.6%) finishes a respectable second.
P.S. I’m not alone in my Golden Girls admiration…this TV classic ranked #2 among the shows that best portrays consumers’ groups of friends/social lives. Click here to view.
Source: BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey – APR-12 (N = 8724, 4/3 – 4/10/12)
© 2012, Prosper®
BIGinsight™ is a trademark of Prosper Business Development Corp.
A Mom Blog
Wife, grandmother, daughter, sister, aunt, friend, godmother, and sometimes just “mom”…we maintain a lot of connections to all of these special women in our lives, so what better way to show our appreciation for all of the mothers than a day just for her?
Not even this year’s escalating gas prices have put the brake on spending for Mother’s Day, which is the third highest-spending holiday that we track for the National Retail Federation (behind Christmas/Hanukkah/Kwanzaa and Back-to-School). And for this special analysis, we’re taking a look at Mother’s Day spending by specific store shoppers* at several major U.S. retailers.
Consistent with our Valentine’s Day findings, Macy’s shoppers are planning to spend the most on mom this year at $222.51, much higher than the overall average ($152.52). Costco shoppers index higher as well (at $164.96), while Target ($154.53) and JC Penney ($156.30) shoppers are expected spend consistently with the typical U.S. shopper. Walmart, Sam’s Club, Amazon.com, and Kohl’s shoppers are aiming for the biggest bargains for their bucks this year:
Interestingly – but perhaps not-so-surprisingly – Amazon.com customers are the most likely to head online for Mother’s Day gifts this year. Forty-seven percent of these shoppers are hitting the Internet just for mom this year (their top destination), which vastly eclipses the 25.6% planning to take to the web among the general population. And for more on the Mother’s Day online shopper, see the Shop.org Blog: Key dates and tips to target the online Mother’s Day shopper in 2012.
What else can we expect this Mother’s Day?
– While Walmart shoppers are the most likely to head to discounters (34.7%) among the retailers we analyzed, department stores (38.4%) and specialty shops (35.2%) will be top destinations for loyalists to the big W as well.
– Specialty stores will be the most popular gifting locales for Target, Kohl’s, JC Penney, Macy’s, Costco, and Sam’s Club customers, though Target, JC Penney, and Macy’s shoppers are nearly as likely to head to department stores, too.
– Among those armed with tablets, Macy’s and Target shoppers are the most likely to use this device to assist with finding the perfect gift for mom. Three out of five (61.7%) Macy’s customers will use their tablets to research or buy products, redeem coupons, or look up retailer information, while 56.8% of Target shoppers say the same. Overall, 51.2% of shoppers who own tablets will use these devices to shop for mom.
* “Shoppers” are defined as respondents who indicated that they shopped a retailer most often for at least one major merchandise category (including Women’s, Men’s, or Children’s Apparel, Shoes, Electronics, Heath & Beauty Care, etc.), unless otherwise noted. Shopper groups analyzed for this report (Walmart, Kohl’s, JC Penney, Target, Macy’s, Costco, Sam’s Club, and Amazon.com) are not mutually exclusive.
Source: BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey – APR-12 (N = 8724, 4/3 – 4/10/12)
© 2012, Prosper®
BIGinsight™ is a trademark of Prosper Business Development Corp.
Consumer Buzz: Women’s Clothing
According to new analysis by BIGinsight, department stores are more buzzed about than discounters when it comes to shopping locales for feminine apparel.* For this special report, we’ve applied the Net Promoter Score** metrics system to our April Consumer Survey data to show how consumers perceive their Women’s Clothing store of choice.
Here, we took the percentage of a destination’s detractors from the number of those who actively promote their Women’s store of choice, which helps us evaluate the strength of a retailer’s image for the Women’s Clothing category. And, among the Top 5 stores for this segment, we found that Kohl’s receives the most net positive buzz (NPS = 36.2%) from its customers, followed by Macy’s and JC Penney (see below). While Target’s NPS was significantly lower than its department store counterparts (at 2.6%), the discounter still garnered an overall positive rating. That other big discounter – Walmart – was the only retailer in the Top 5 to calculate a negative NPS (-10.3%)…ouch.
It’s interesting to note that while the most buzzed about retailers are department stores by definition, each courts customers based on varying motivations. For the Kohl’s and JC Penney shoppers, price and selection are the key reasons to peruse their racks; for Macy’s, it’s quality and selection. At Walmart, customers shop based on price and location, while Target woos shoppers with a mix of price, selection, and location (shoppers seem divided between the latter two).
What analysts are buzzing about, though, is consumers’ reaction to JC Penney’s new “Fair & Square” pricing strategy. As it turns out, JC Penney’s customers just aren’t as likely to be lured by coupons and special deals when it comes to shopping the Women’s section. While Walmart and Target are the least likely to be motivated by this sales simulant, over at Kohl’s, we might see shopper anarchy if this department store darling adopts a similar strategy #kohlscashforever
*April 2012’s Top 5 Retailers for Women’s Clothing (Kohl’s, Walmart, Macy’s, JC Penney, Target) were analyzed for this blog.
**Net Promoter, NPS and Net Promoter Score are trademarks of Satmetrix Systems, Inc., Bain & Company, and Fred Reichheld
The NPS which takes a simple question–Would you recommend us to a friend?–has helped countless organizations better understand “promoters” and “detractors” and paint a clear picture of their company’s performance through the eyes of their customers. By applying the Net Promoter Score*, executives can identify their customer base and move beyond “sufficient” to brand loyalty and growth.
For more information on this data, please contact BIGinsight™.
Source: BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey – APR-12 (N = 8724, 4/3 – 4/10/12)
© 2012, Prosper®
BIGinsight™ is a trademark of Prosper Business Development Corp.